Simon's 2024 NFL Regular Season Review
How Did My Preseason Predictions Stack Up? Takeaways from the NFL Regular Season
Before the NFL season began, I jotted down some thoughts and made predictions for the year ahead. Now that the season has concluded, it’s time to look back at how things unfolded and how my predictions held up.
I correctly predicted 6 of 8 division winners and 4 of 8 division losers. I only got one division exactly right, the AFC West.
In the following sections, I’ll discuss the season’s outcomes division by division and pick who should take home the NFL’s regular season awards.
AFC
AFC North (Bills, Dolphins, Jets, Pats)
Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills breaks a tackle by Fred Warner of the San Francisco 49ers for a touchdown. Bryan M. Bennett / Getty Images
I correctly predicted the winner and loser of the AFC East and felt strongly about both at the time. The Buffalo Bills have, by far, the best quarterback in the division, and one of the best in the entire league in Josh Allen. And it looks like they have the best coach in the division, Sean McDermott.
Before the season, I would have argued that Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel was the best in the division. However, his reputation has deservedly taken a hit since last year’s pathetic playoff loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. The Dolphins’ disappointing season hasn’t helped. Missing the playoffs can be partly attributed to quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s injury, but also because their overall team, including the coach, is fine— and nothing more. Tua is injury-prone, and even when healthy, he’s just an average starting quarterback. That makes his contract a problem for the Dolphins for the foreseeable future.
One thing about the Dolphins that surprised me this season was that Tyreek Hill had only one play over 30 yards. Could this be the beginning of the end for him? I’d like to see him with a better quarterback before I write him off as a declining player, and given his recent comments, it looks like I may get my wish.
I let the Jets’ hype sway me. I bought into the idea that they had a ton of talent, and as a Vikings fan, I was reluctant to trust my own eyes when it came to Aaron Rodgers and his inability to play winning football. I didn’t think they’d make the playoffs, but I did expect them to be in the Wild Card mix. If they bring Rodgers back, they’ll get exactly what they deserve—more failure and disappointment.
As for the Patriots, it was clear from the start they were going to be one of the worst teams in the NFL. Their roster is in bad shape, but there’s a bright spot in rookie quarterback Drake Maye, who’s shown flashes of greatness and looks like a legitimate franchise quarterback. Although they blew their shot at the 1st overall pick by beating the Bills in the final week of the season, they still have a top 5 pick, a likely franchise QB, and a standout cornerback in Christian Gonzalez. If they hire Mike Vrabel to replace Jerod Mayo—which they absolutely should—the Patriots will be back in the playoff mix sooner rather than later.
AFC North (Ravens, Steelers, Bengals, Browns)
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson leaps over a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defender. Nathan Ray Seebeck, Imagn Images
I thought the Ravens might take a step back after a disappointing end to last season, but they managed to repeat as division champions. The addition of Derrick Henry was a game-changer. Thanks in large part to his signing, the Ravens boasted the best rushing offense in the NFL. Lamar Jackson was even more impressive this year than last, he’s unlikely to win MVP but would be deserving if he did. It’s no surprise they won the division and are a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
The Steelers were by far the biggest surprise in the AFC for me. I thought this would be the year head coach Mike Tomlin’s streak of winning seasons would end. I figured the quarterback situation would be too much to overcome in such a tough division and the superior conference, but I was wrong. The Steelers' defense was excellent, T.J. Watt is the best defender in the NFL. The Steelers now have arguably the best kicker in the NFL in Chris Boswell, and Russell Wilson exceeded my expectations. The Steelers did what the Steelers do - win - and I should’ve known better than to predict otherwise.
The Cincinnati Bengals were a disappointment this season. I thought their incredibly talented offense would be enough to help them win this tough division, but their defense was abysmal. Despite Joe Burrow finishing the year with the most yards and touchdowns of any quarterback, Ja’Marr Chase finishing with the most catches, yards, and touchdowns of any receiver, and Trey Hendrickson finishing with the most sacks of any defensive player, the Bengals still missed the playoffs. Unfortunately for Cincinnati, as long as ownership remains the same—because they’re cheap and incompetent—they’ll continue to struggle, even with one of the league’s best quarterbacks. Part of me hopes Joe Burrow doesn’t spend his whole career there, sorry Bengals fans.
The Cleveland Browns are the most depressing franchise in the NFL. They have one of the league's worst quarterbacks, Deshaun Watson, and he's being paid like one of the best. Until that situation is addressed, this team will remain stuck in the NFL’s basement.
AFC South (Texans, Colts, Jaguars, Titans)
What a boring division. I thought the Texans, led by quarterback C.J. Stroud and bolstered by strong offseason additions, would build on last season’s success. While they won the division, the season was nonetheless disappointing. I predicted they’d finish with the best record in the conference, but they ended up 5th. Even though Stefon Diggs missed a good portion of the season after an ACL injury and both Nico Collins and Tank Dell dealt with injuries, there was still enough talent to warrant a more successful campaign. Hopefully, this can be chalked up to a sophomore slump, and Stroud will return to his rookie form next year.
The rest of this division is just as uninspiring. The Colts have a solid roster, but their quarterback situation is a major problem. Anthony Richardson has tons of talent and physical ability, but he’s one of the most inaccurate quarterbacks I’ve ever seen. He occasionally impresses with athletic runs and a cannon of an arm, but the simple throws seem to be a real struggle for him.
Brian Thomas Jr. breaks a tackle against the Tennessee Titans
The Jaguars are a mess, as usual. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has been a disappointment so far in his career, though he hasn’t exactly had great supporting pieces around him, most notably the coaching. Rookie wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. had an outstanding season; he might be the best wide receiver in this rookie class. With a good coach added this offseason, hopefully, the Jaguars can unlock Lawrence and the team’s potential.
The Titans—who I thought would contend for the worst team in football—actually won! They now have the number one pick and should absolutely use it to draft a quarterback. Mayo Man (current quarterback Will Levis) is not the answer.
AFC West (Chiefs, Chargers, Broncos, Raiders)
This is the only AFC division in which I nailed the order exactly. While I didn’t expect the Denver Broncos to make the playoffs with rookie quarterback Bo Nix, I did expect both the Kansas City Chiefs and the Los Angeles Chargers to finish with better records than the Broncos.
Patrick Mahomes stiff arms Denver Broncos linebacker Jonathon Cooper. / Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images
The Chiefs have the best quarterback and the best coach in the league—something that was true before the season and remains true now. That Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid naturally led to a lot of wins, so I’m not surprised they finished with the best record not just in their division, but in their conference and the entire NFL.
The Chargers' improvement year over year wasn’t a shock either. A season ago, they had one of the worst coaches in the league; this season, they have one of the best. Jim Harbaugh has turned the team around quickly, just as I expected. With an offseason to reorganize the roster after a tough year financially, the Chargers—armed with a great QB-coach combo—are poised to be a contender for years to come.
The Raiders, as expected, were one of the worst teams in football. They don’t have a starting QB on their roster, and they just fired head coach Antonio Pierce (which was the right move). Some are speculating that Las Vegas could be where both Deion and Shedeur Sanders land next season. I think that would be a much smarter move than what they’ll likely do: hire a coordinator as head coach (which often doesn’t work out) and sign a free-agent QB who won’t pan out either.
NFC
NFC East (Eagles, Commanders, Cowboys, Giants)
Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley with the play of the year, hurdling over a defender backward.
The NFC East contains my most regretful non-prediction. I wanted to pick the Commanders to finish ahead of the Cowboys and make the playoffs, but I didn’t have the guts to pull the trigger. Despite my admiration for Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin and my belief in Dan Quinn as a stabilizing force, I had serious doubts about their defense. Those pieces I liked were even better than I anticipated, papering over the rest of the teams’ flaws.
Despite the Philadelphia Eagles having a coach I absolutely don’t believe in, I figured that, given the immense talent on their roster and the addition of running back Saquon Barkley, they’d win the division—and I was right. Barkley had his best season and the best season of any running back this year, I wish Sirianni had given him the chance to chase the rushing record in the final week of the season. Nonetheless, he finished with over 2,000 rushing yards, becoming only the 9th player in history to do so.
The Cowboys are exactly who I thought they were—and who they've been for years. quarterback Dak Prescott is overrated in my opinion, and definitely overpaid. They have two standout players (Micah Parsons and CeeDee Lamb) and a slightly above-average quarterback. Their coach is solid but not great, and the rest of the roster is largely unimpressive. As long as Jerry Jones is the owner and Dak is the quarterback, this team will continue to disappoint.
The Giants... what is there to say? They let the best running back in football, Saquon Barkley, walk this offseason, leaving them with just one talented offensive player—rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers. They have some solid defensive pieces and a coach in Brian Daboll who I think is worth keeping, but they’re still a quarterback and offensive line away from being at all competitive.
NFC North (Lions, Vikings, Packers, Bears)
Sam Darnold throws a 97-yard touchdown to Justin Jefferson
Without a doubt, the best division in football. The NFC North also gave us two of the most compelling stories of the NFL season. The Detroit Lions became one of the league’s darlings as they dominated much of the season, winning 15 of their 17 games and clinching the top seed in the NFC. The team has taken on the strong personality of their head coach Dan Campbell and it’s been a winning formula.
The Minnesota Vikings may have been the most surprising team in the NFL. Their preseason over/under was set at 6.5, and they absolutely crushed it, winning 14 games. Like many, I was shocked. I could have chalked up my pessimism to being a lifelong Vikings fan and the constant disappointment that comes with it, but almost every NFL analyst predicted this team would miss the playoffs. Sam Darnold exceeded my expectations—he's been excellent this season—but he still has those moments where you see the old Darnold, the guy who’s reckless with the ball and seems unable to meet the moment. He may have found a long-term home in Minnesota, but that will largely depend on his performance in the playoffs and what kind of money he expects from a new contract. If I were the Vikings, I’d franchise tag him, meaning he'd play for about $41 million next season, and have him prove he can maintain this level of play for another year before committing to a long-term deal.
The Packers had a pretty unremarkable season, which was somewhat disappointing given their shellacking of the Dallas Cowboys in last year’s playoffs. However, they dealt with injuries and are in the toughest division in football. They’re a young, up-and-coming team, and if I were a fan, I wouldn’t be worried about the future at all. The quarterback has a lot of potential to be very good, and the coach is already excellent.
I way overestimated the Bears. I was wrong to expect rookie quarterback Caleb Williams to become a high-level quarterback right away. However, the poor coaching in Chicago was a hindrance. He may still develop into a top-tier QB in the NFL, but I’m far less confident in that now than I was at the start of the season. That said, I think the Bears are in a strong position to compete for the playoffs next year—provided they hire the right coach. Mike Vrabel would be my first choice, with Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson a close second.
NFC South (Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers, Saints)
Arguably the worst division in football, the NFC South didn’t have any spectacular teams, but it did provide a couple of good stories I really enjoyed this season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneer quarterback Baker Mayfield makes an incredible play to convert on 4th down.
Baker Mayfield, quarterback for the Buccaneers, had the best season of his career and did so in an incredibly entertaining fashion. He managed to recapture some of what made him so fun to watch as a Heisman Award winner in college at Oklahoma—running around, stiff-arming defenders, and making great throws on the run. Baker embraces a gritty attitude, playing with passion and flair. I’m really glad he was able to bounce back after a rough start to his career. This year, he’s become a very good quarterback—maybe even in the top 10 now—and certainly deserves some MVP votes.
I thought the Falcons would be good, but I was wrong. While they were fighting for the division and a playoff spot until the very last game, no one thought they’d make any noise in the postseason had they made it—and they didn’t. I thought Kirk Cousins would return to form quickly, but he was unable to recapture his ability to be a better-than-average quarterback. He looked like an old, creaky version of himself this season. My guess is the Falcons will find a way to move on from Cousins and focus on developing Michael Penix Jr., who showed some flashes of potential in the final games of the season.
Another great story in this division was Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young’s comeback. Early in the season, after just a few games, the former 1st overall pick was benched in favor of veteran Andy Dalton. A few weeks later, Dalton was involved in a car accident (thankfully, everyone is fine) that kept him out of the next game. Young stepped in and hasn’t looked back since. While the Panthers didn’t win a ton of games this season, they looked much more competitive in the back half of the year. Most had this team pegged as one of the worst in football, but they weren’t even the worst in their division. I was ready to write off Bryce Young, but now I think he has a chance to establish himself as a starting quarterback in this league—something I didn’t think was possible before the season.
The Saints are exactly who I thought they’d be. After a hot 2-0 start, some began to believe this team might contend for the division, but I had no such illusions. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: until the Saints get either the quarterback or the coach right, they’ll remain among the NFL’s bottom feeders.
NFC West (Rams, Seahawks, Cardinals, 49ers)
Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua catches a pass.
A rollercoaster of a season for the NFC West. If I’m not mistaken, each team at one point held the top spot. I was worried about my Los Angeles Rams pick at the start of the season, but they recovered from injury and proved to be the team I expected them to be. I’m not sure they’ll make the NFC Championship Game like I predicted, despite my hesitation, they absolutely could make a deep playoff run—even to the Super Bowl.
The rest of the division is a bit of a mess. The Seattle Seahawks looked solid throughout the season, but there’s a “wow” factor missing. They’re decent to good at most things but not great at anything. I’m curious to see what happens at quarterback with Geno Smith’s contract situation looming.
The Arizona Cardinals had their ups and downs. At points during this year they looked like they might make the playoffs but they just don’t have any high end talent to keep up with the better teams in the NFL.
The 49ers might be the most disappointing team of the year. A lot of that comes down to injuries. Christian McCaffrey, the team’s most electric player, was sidelined for much of the season. Several wide receivers missed time, including Brandon Aiyuk, who tore his ACL mid-year—he was quarterback Brock Purdy’s favorite target. This was probably their last year with the current roster, which is unfortunate because the changes they’ll have to make due to the salary cap will leave them depleted, especially if they pay Brock Purdy a significant amount. I don’t think they should, but if they don’t, another team will, since so many are desperate for competence at the position.
Regular Season Awards
I got every single regular season award prediction wrong. The results aren’t out yet, but I’m confident in admitting defeat on that one.
If I had a ballot for each of these awards, here’s who I would choose:
MVP: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
While there’s a strong argument that Lamar Jackson had a better season statistically, I think Allen’s team success, along with having less talent around him compared to Lamar, gives him the edge. Lamar has two MVPs, and Allen has zero, which would be another factor in my preference for Allen.
Side Note: Had McCaffrey won the MVP last season, as he should have, I probably would give it to Lamar this season.
Defensive Player Of the Year: T.J. Watt, Pittsburgh Steelers
Watt was the most dominant defensive player I saw all season. I still think the Steelers' win-loss record without him (1-10) is insane. I’d love to give it to Andrew Van Ginkel, but there were too many other standouts on the Vikings’ defense to justify it. Patrick Surtain of the Broncos is certainly deserving, but Watt is most worthy.
Offensive Player Of the Year: Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles
In a just world, Barkley would have had the opportunity to chase the single-season rushing record, and had he broken it, I think he would’ve deserved MVP. A spectacular season from a spectacular player.
Coach of the Year: Kevin O’Connell, Minnesota Vikings
Maybe my homerism is showing a bit here, but while there are many deserving candidates—Andy Reid, Jim Harbaugh, Mike Tomlin, Dan Campbell—I think the Vikings had the most surprising and impressive season of the bunch. I love O'Connell and hope he coaches the Vikings for decades to come.
Rookie OPOY: Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
Daniels took a team with no hope and gave them tons. He wowed with his running ability, accuracy, and poise in big moments. By far the most impressive rookie quarterback.
Brock Bowers, tight end for the Raiders, also deserves mention—he’s incredible.
Rookie DPOY: Jared Verse, Los Angeles Rams
One might have thought that the Rams made the playoffs because of their offense. The reality is, they won a bunch of close, low-scoring games at the end of the season thanks to their defense and Jared Verse.
Comeback Player of the Year: Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers / Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings
I couldn’t choose between these two because I love both stories. I had written each guy off before the season—especially Bryce Young. I even wrote him off mid season! Darnold had by far the best year of his career, unexpectedly led the Vikings back to the playoffs, and might even get some MVP votes. Young was benched, and people like me thought his career was over. The way he finished the season has me wondering if the Panthers could turn things around in the next couple of years. Both would be deserving recipients of this award.
Another entertaining NFL regular season is in the books! Check out my Playoff Predictions!